The Hybrid Slow Down

Do you notice it? The hybrid hype is slowing down! There are no more new major models being announced. It seems like everyone's just waiting for the sales and numbers to come out. Everyone's playing safe!

Granted that the infrastructure for plug-ins is still slow coming and granted that hybrids are not proving much value except for the "green movement", it seems that the hybrid hype is now being watched for a real success in the market.

The last major announcement was the Chevy Volt, which turned out to be an expensive disappointment. Honda does have Honda Fit hybrid released in Japan, which could claim to be one of the cheapest hybrid. However, that is being contested by a Russian oligarch targeting a product by 2012. There are also rumors of a Honda Prius-based minivan but that might really turn out to be true. Meanwhile, Nissan Leaf would arrive soon and it would be challenged by Chevy Volt in the leasing market category.

At the end of the day, it all boils down to sales (in quantity and in revenue). It seems that most car manufacturers are not willing to risk much for the hybrid... yet. Come to think of it, during these trying economic times, it pays to be extra careful. The hybrid has some infrastructural requirements that are not widely available which greatly limits the target-able market. However, unless these hybrid manufacturers create a strong business case to put up more charging stations, the realization of a hybrid dominated highway may be further delayed.

It's like a cyclic chicken-and-egg, domino effect problem. Historically, the more cars sold dictates how much re-fueling/charging stations can be opened. However, due to mileage anxiety with hybrids, some people are hesitant. So they want to be assured first with more charging stations. Meanwhile, the infrastructure seems to be waiting for an assurance that there is a long-term hybrid market growth and stability. Fearing lack of support, hybrid car manufacturers set lower production caps. If this goes on, the "hybrid might" could take more time to really become something big

Meanwhile, we have 2011 as the "year of the hybrids". Till then, let's watch and learn...

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